A new analysis from Bradesco BBI indicates that the transition to electric mobility will transform the profile of Brazil’s vehicle fleet, impacting fossil fuel consumption by 2035.
The sustainable mobility landscape in Brazil is on the verge of a significant structural shift. According to a recent study by Bradesco BBI, the share of electric and hybrid vehicles is expected to jump to 31% of the national fleet within the next decade. While adoption has grown impressively—reaching 16% of current sales, a figure four times higher than in 2023—this technology still accounts for only a small portion of the more than 36 million cars currently on the road in the country.
The projection indicates steady progress: the electrified market is expected to represent 10% of the fleet by 2029, reaching 20% in 2032 and consolidating at 31% by 2035. Experts note that despite the longevity of combustion-engine vehicles, the pace of fleet renewal will be driven by the trend that, by the end of this period, the majority of new vehicles registered in the country will feature some level of electrification.
Impacts on Energy Security and the Sugar-Energy Sector
From an energy security perspective, the transition is viewed as a positive development. Reducing reliance on petroleum derivatives strengthens the country’s self-sufficiency and decreases the need for gasoline imports.
According to the analysis by Filipi Cardoso, an economist at the bank, the increased blend of anhydrous ethanol and the rise of electric vehicles tend to reduce the structural demand for liquid fuels, which is expected to fall to approximately 50.7 million liters by 2035.
However, this new reality poses a strategic challenge for the sugar-energy supply chain. With the domestic fuel market under pressure, the sector is being encouraged to seek new horizons for ethanol. Applications in agricultural machinery, maritime shipping, and the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are emerging as promising alternatives to maintain the economic relevance of domestic biofuel production.
Infrastructure and the Future of the Electric Grid
The expansion of the electrified fleet depends directly on the robustness of charging infrastructure, which has grown rapidly, jumping from 800 charging points in 2021 to over 14,800 in 2025. Bradesco BBI projects that with 11.8 million electrified vehicles on the road by 2035, the demand for electricity for charging could reach 13.5 TWh—a significant leap that will require continuous investment in efficiency and grid planning.
Finally, the study raises an important fiscal question: the impact on tax revenue. Since a significant portion of federal and state taxes is linked to fossil fuel consumption, the advance of vehicle electrification will likely force a future review of the national taxation model.
The debate over this transition, therefore, goes far beyond automotive technology, involving crucial choices for Brazil’s economic and energy sustainability in the coming decades.
