The surge in electronics prices, driven by the global semiconductor shortage, creates a challenging scenario for Brazilian retail during Children’s Day sales.
The approach of Children’s Day has raised a red flag for the Brazilian retail sector. For the first time since 2021, the technology market is facing significant inflationary pressure, with prices for video games and computers posting double-digit increases in the 12 months ending in August 2026. While the IPCA — the official inflation index — accumulated 4.22%, electronics surged 12.04% and 10.24%, respectively.
The phenomenon, identified by a survey conducted by GestãoClick in partnership with IBGE, reflects a logistics and supply crisis that extends beyond national borders. The direct impact on the consumer’s wallet is the consequence of a global technological bottleneck, where the race to develop Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure has absorbed a large share of worldwide chip production.
The semiconductor crisis and the impact on prices
The fierce competition for essential components, such as memory chips, has triggered a domino effect throughout the supply chain. According to data from the consultancy firm TrendForce, the cost of conventional DRAM memory jumped nearly 98% in the first quarter of 2026 alone. This drastic rise in raw material costs makes it impossible for retailers to keep end-user prices stable.
For small business owners, the situation demands a financial balancing act. With no room to maneuver, many store owners find themselves torn between passing the increases on to buyers or shrinking their own profit margins to avoid losing momentum during one of the most important dates for national retail revenue, which moves about R$ 2.6 billion.
Challenges in small retail management
The survey indicates that pricing in micro-enterprises is still largely done empirically. Without rigorous tracking of replacement costs, many businesses run the risk of generating high sales volume while ending the period with an operational loss or insufficient cash flow to replenish inventories after the demand peak.
Lucas Sousa, sales manager at GestãoClick, stated:
Children’s Day is a major opportunity for small businesses, but selling more does not necessarily mean higher profits. Having control over pricing, inventory, and sales is essential.
As Children’s Day draws near, expectations from CNC (National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism) remain strong in terms of volume, but profitability will depend on management efficiency. Looking ahead, the sector projects that the stabilization of electronics prices will depend directly on the normalization of chip manufacturing and a cooling of demand for large AI servers—factors that continue to be closely monitored by the market.
