Subsidy Delay and Petrobras’ Diesel Import Reduction Raise Alarm for Shortages in Southern Brazil.
Southern Brazil is once again feeling the pressure of diesel shortages. State-owned oil company Petrobras slowed its import pace in September, precisely when international fuel prices were rising. This reduced supply, combined with delays in regulating a government-promised subsidy, is causing apprehension among distributors, especially during a critical period for the agribusiness sector.
The situation is exacerbated by the approaching summer planting season, when diesel demand typically increases significantly. The market was awaiting the publication of a decree from the Ministry of Finance detailing an additional R$1 per liter diesel subsidy. However, the document has not yet been released, creating uncertainty and forcing Petrobras to await regulation for potential adjustments in prices and volumes.
Volatility in State-Owned Company’s Imports
Recent data reveals that Petrobras has been one of the main importers of S10 diesel in the country since March. However, the volume of its imports has fluctuated significantly, reflecting both global price variations and changes in subsidy policies. This instability in the state-owned company’s supply raises questions about the predictability of the fuel availability.
The company, for its part, maintains that the imported volume is in line with market demand and that national supply is a shared responsibility among various players. According to Petrobras, September and October imports are planned to meet the typical seasonality of the period, which includes the outflow of agricultural harvests.
Supply Crisis and the Role of Private Agents
The gap between the import parity price (PPI) and domestic market prices has been a constant. Since June, the diesel PPI has accumulated considerable increases, while the federal subsidy has remained stagnant. This difference, when not covered by subsidies, pressures the market and makes private imports more attractive.
Private agents have been responsible for the majority of S10 diesel imports since March, supplying a significant portion of the demand that Petrobras has not been able to fully meet with its refining capacity and imports. The state-owned company, however, argues that it communicates available volumes in advance to distributors, who would then be responsible for planning complementary supply.
The Reality in Southern Brazil
In Rio Grande do Sul, specifically in the regions of Canoas and Rio Grande, the discrepancy between diesel orders from distributors to Petrobras and the volumes approved by the state-owned company has been growing. In 2025, the company met almost all requests, but in 2026, the approval rate dropped to around 78% for S10 and S500 diesel.
This situation raises concerns for the agricultural sector, which relies on diesel for planting and harvesting operations. The expectation is that the regulation of the new subsidy will bring relief, but Petrobras‘s capacity to respond to growing demands and the stability of its imports will continue to be crucial factors in avoiding a supply shock in the Brazilian market.
