Government plans for the 2026 presidential race converge on betting on renewable energy and strategic mining, but reveal deep chasms regarding environmental protection and regulation.
The race for the Planalto Palace in 2026 places the energy transition agenda at the center of discussions about the country’s economic future. A recent survey by the Climate Observatory (OC) evaluated the proposals of the main candidates and found that, while there is a consensus on the potential of critical minerals and clean sources, the commitment to socio-environmental safeguards remains the main point of divergence among the campaigns.
The analysis, published this week, categorized the promises of Lula (PT), Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), and Romeu Zema (Novo). The results indicate that, in the energy sector, most candidates adopt a vague tone when discussing low-carbon technologies, while the issue of fossil fuels divides the candidacies between a discourse of gradual transition and resistance to decarbonization.
Contradictions Between Discourse and Practice
One of the critical points highlighted by the OC is the ambivalence of the current Workers’ Party administration. The document points out that the federal government advocates for Brazil’s leadership in the climate agenda, while simultaneously encouraging record oil and gas production, without presenting a clear timeline for abandoning fossil fuel dependence.
While Lula‘s candidacy presents a more moderate or questionable approach, the other presidential hopefuls are identified by the entity as figures who, in practice, are “playing against” the goals of eliminating polluting fuels.
Strategic Mining and the Safeguards Dilemma
The convergence of the programs becomes even clearer — and concerning from an environmental perspective — when the subject is the mining sector. Critical minerals and rare earths are unanimously seen as the key to a new phase of Brazilian industrialization.
However, the absence of solid environmental control mechanisms and rigorous licensing is a common characteristic across almost all plans.
The Climate Observatory‘s analysis points out:
It is crucial to note that, despite the unanimity on the economic importance of these assets, the debate on how to exploit these resources sustainably is still neglected in government plans, with few proposals that guarantee community consultation or mitigation of water and tailings impacts.
Different Views on Development
Approaches to the mining sector vary according to each candidate’s profile. While Lula seeks to align the sector with state control and sovereignty, Zema and Cury focus on deregulation and streamlining of mining processes.
Caiado introduces the debate on traceability but faces criticism regarding the rigidity of safeguards. On the more right-wing side, Flávio Bolsonaro and Renan Santos prioritize the aggressive expansion of mining, with proposals that, in extreme cases such as exploration in indigenous lands, disregard basic territorial protections.
The future scenario for the clean energy and mining sector in Brazil remains open. Depending on the winner at the polls, the country will decide whether to follow an exploitation model focused on accelerating industrialization at any cost or seek a path that integrates global competitiveness with the growing demands of socio-environmental sustainability.
