The National Electric System Operator has revised downward its energy demand estimate for October, adjusting the numbers following a September marked by atypical weather and heavy rainfall.
ONS (the National Electric System Operator) has adjusted its projections for energy consumption in Brazil. The estimated load growth for October in the SIN (National Interconnected System) was reduced from 6.7% to 4%, bringing the expectation to an average of 85,274 MW. The change was announced during the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) meeting held last Thursday (24).
The revision reflects market behavior that differed from what was previously anticipated for September. The period featured below-average temperatures and intense rainfall, especially in the South and Southeast regions, which curbed the consumption expected by the sector. As a result, September is expected to close with an average load of 83,136 MW, coming in 2.3% below the operator’s previous projection.
What to Expect for the End of the Year
Despite this one-off slowdown, ONS remains optimistic for the final quarter of 2026. The forecast is that the normalization of temperatures, along with the expected increase in heat across the Southeast and Midwest, will drive energy consumption. For November, the SIN load projection increased, pointing to a year-over-year rise of 9.34% and reaching an average of 89,566 MW.
Despite occasional adjustments, the Brazilian electric sector projects a consolidated growth of 4.29% in the system’s average load for the full year of 2026, anchored by robust performance in the North and Northeast regions, which continue to surpass energy demand estimates.
Regional Performance of the SIN
The consumption scenario varies across subsystems. While the Southeast/Midwest and South regions had their October growth forecasts lowered, the Northeast and North showed upward trends higher than previously expected.
The Northeast, in particular, is projected to lead expansion in October with an 8.89% increase in load. Meanwhile, the North follows a similar trajectory with an estimated growth of 8.48%. ONS continues to monitor the effects of climate phenomena, such as El Niño, which are expected to dictate the pace of energy demand as temperatures rise in the coming months. With these projections, the sector is preparing to secure supply in the face of a more vigorous consumption rebound expected toward the end of the year.
