The expansion of the Deregulated Energy Market to low-voltage consumers is generating expectations, but specialists warn against the illusion of significant savings and increased bureaucracy in the Brazilian electricity sector.
Brazil’s energy infrastructure, a fundamental pillar for development, does not tolerate empty promises and political illusionism. Recently, the signing of Decree No. 13.097/2026 brought with it the regulation of the expansion of the Deregulated Energy Market (ACL), extending it to low-voltage consumers – encompassing everything from small industries and businesses to residences. However, this initiative, which promises a revolution in energy consumption, raises profound questions about its economic and operational viability.
The proposal for “freedom of choice” in electricity energy consumption, often compared to switching phone carriers, is presented as a great opportunity for energy savings. With projected reductions of up to 20% on electricity bills for small establishments starting in 2027 and for other consumers in 2028, the official narrative is undoubtedly appealing. However, a more in-depth analysis, as pointed out by specialist Walter Fróes, reveals a much less promising scenario, where real savings may be significantly lower than what is promised.
Savings Promise vs. Reality
The reality of the Deregulated Energy Market, even for consumers who already have access, shows that savings margins are narrower than idealized. Currently, in the Retail Deregulated Market, reductions in electricity bills hover around 5%. Projecting this dynamic for new low-voltage consumers, the estimate is that discounts may be as low as 2.5%. This projection, based on current market conditions, calls into question the attractiveness of migrating for a public seeking effective solutions to alleviate their energy costs.
Distributed Generation: A More Attractive Alternative
Given a potential savings of only 2.5%, the question arises: why would a small business owner or residential consumer opt for the deregulated market if Distributed Generation (DG) already offers discounts of 15% to 20%? DG, through consortia and cooperatives, already serves this public in a simplified manner, without the complexities and procedures required by the Chamber of Commercialization of Electric Energy (CCEE). The average consumer seeks simplicity and clear benefits, not the management of an intricate regulatory network and contractual risks.
Bureaucratic and Structural Challenges
Beyond its limited economic appeal, the decree introduces questionable bureaucratic solutions, such as the creation of the Last Resort Supplier (SUI). This new structure within the CCEE, intended to manage defaults and compulsory exchanges, tends to burden the system with additional costs and the need for more personnel. The electricity sector would, in fact, require more agile transition mechanisms, the so-called “fast-track,” among commercialization companies, without the State needing to assume the role of guarantor. The growing politicization of strategic positions in crucial bodies like the CCEE and the National Electric System Operator (ONS) also compromises the technical rigor essential for the complex management of the system.
Real Paths to Energy Modernization
While decrees are celebrated as major advancements, the true levers for efficiency and modernization of the energy sector lie elsewhere. Self-production of energy and the expansion of battery energy storage systems (BESS) represent concrete solutions for a more sustainable and resilient future. These technologies promote autonomy and optimize the use of clean energy, relieving the central system and offering tangible benefits to consumers.
The expansion of the Deregulated Energy Market to low-voltage consumers, despite good intentions, runs the serious risk of becoming an empty promise, especially in a pre-election period. When the initial enthusiasm of the announcements fades, the disconnect between political rhetoric and the practical reality of the Brazilian electricity sector will become evident, leaving the bill of disillusionment for consumers and the country’s energy infrastructure.
*Walter Fróes is the CEO of CMU Energia Group.
