Brazilian stocks feel the pressure and close lower, while Bitcoin surges past $80,000.
The Brazilian financial market ended Friday (18) on a cautious note. The main stock index, the Ibovespa, registered a 0.41% drop, closing the day at 185,229.17 points. This result accentuates the index’s weekly decline, which accumulated a 1.06% loss. Simultaneously, the dollar showed strength, with the spot rate advancing 0.10% to R$5.1442, raising its weekly gain to 0.37%.
The domestic scenario remains under the influence of the proximity of the presidential elections. The market is anxiously awaiting new voter intention polls, expecting them to reflect the impact of the recent 15% adjustment to the Bolsa Família program, announced by the government the previous day. This fiscal and political uncertainty contributes to the risk aversion observed among investors.
Luca Girardi, an investment analyst at Nomad, highlights that global dynamics also play a crucial role. The increase in interest rates abroad, which has strengthened the dollar, has put pressure on the Brazilian stock market. The lack of clarity regarding the country’s fiscal path limits investors’ appetite for higher-risk assets.
In this context, Petrobras is in the spotlight. XP Investimentos projects a reduction of approximately US$2 billion in the state-owned company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) for the third quarter of 2026, totaling US$17.8 billion. This expectation arises even amidst rising international oil derivative prices and an increase in the company’s production.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Wall Street markets showed mixed performance. The continuous rise in yields on Treasuries – U.S. government bonds that serve as a benchmark for global interest rates – generated uncertainty.
In contrast, the cryptocurrency market experienced a day of euphoria. Bitcoin saw significant appreciation, surging this Friday (18) and surpassing the $80,000 mark, its highest value since May. Around 1 p.m., the cryptocurrency was trading at $80,650, registering a 5.5% gain in the last 24 hours.
This Bitcoin rally occurs at a peculiar moment, contrasting with Wall Street‘s performance and happening amid an environment of rising interest rates in the United States and the failure of the CLARITY Act, a highly anticipated regulatory bill in the sector. The cryptocurrency’s appreciation appears to be a direct reaction to a move by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the U.S. derivatives regulator.
The CFTC has moved forward with a proposal for new rules in the crypto-asset market, sending a request to the White House‘s OMB (Office of Management and Budget). A new regulation published on Friday allows software providers to connect users to regulated derivatives markets without the need for broker registration, offering temporary relief until more consolidated rules are defined.
The volatility observed in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets reflects an environment of global economic uncertainty and specific regulatory particularities, creating space for different interpretations of the assets’ next moves.
