A report from BTG Pactual indicates that Petrobras continues to sell fuel below international market rates, even with direct subsidies from the federal government.
Petrobras‘ pricing policy has returned to the center of strategic debates within the Brazilian energy sector. Recent data reveal that the company maintains a significant gap compared to international benchmarks, a scenario that persists despite the financial support injected by public coffers.
The analysis, signed by BTG Pactual, highlights the disconnect between the state-owned company’s pricing strategy and the so-called PPI (Import Parity Price). Without state assistance, the divergence from global quotes would be even more severe, straining the oil company’s finances and limiting domestic market competitiveness.
The impact of subsidies on cash flow
Financial calculations show that for diesel, the gap reaches 19%, while for gasoline, the figure stands at 12%. The subsidy mechanism acts as a buffer but is insufficient to eliminate the shortfall between the cost of imports and the prices charged to distributors.
For diesel, the math is clear: while the external market points to a cost of R$ 5.43 per liter, Petrobras receives only R$ 4.43, combining direct sales and the subsidy. For gasoline, the state-owned company collects R$ 3.07 per liter, while the import parity price hovers around R$ 3.50.
“This price differential effectively stifles competition from imported fuel, keeping import windows closed for most private players in the domestic market.”
Market challenges and next steps
The disparity between domestic and external prices creates a natural barrier for independent importers, who struggle to compete with the rates offered by Petrobras at the ports. In some cases, the cost difference for the imported product exceeds R$ 1.80 per liter compared to the prices charged by the state-owned firm.
Despite the pressure on revenue, BTG Pactual analysts note that the company’s refining margins remain positive. The situation leaves the government and Petrobras management at a crossroads: either the company adjusts its price tables to align with the global market, or the government will need to significantly increase subsidies to sustain the current pricing policy over the coming months.
