The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) warns that Brazil must increase infrastructure investment to 4.6% of its GDP to overcome a historical deficit and drive sustainable development.
Brazil faces an urgent structural challenge to regain its economic growth momentum. A recent study by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) indicates that the country needs to double its annual investment in infrastructure projects, reaching a target of 4.65% of GDP—approximately R$ 550 billion per year—over the next two decades. This goal aims to eliminate bottlenecks that limit national competitiveness and bring the country up to global standards of logistics and technological efficiency.
The infrastructure sector is currently undergoing a paradigm shift. While public investment has seen a drastic reduction over the last decade, private capital has taken the lead, especially through the capital markets. However, the CNI‘s diagnosis is clear: for sustainable development, replacing funding sources is not enough. A coordinated strategy that combines budgetary resources, development bank credit, and the strength of private capital is essential.
The growing role of private capital in infrastructure
Data from 2024 shows that the private sector accounted for 70.5% of infrastructure investments in Brazil, totaling R$ 188.5 billion. A highlight is the strategic use of incentivized debentures, which saw record issuances of R$ 111.2 billion. Sectors such as electric power, telecommunications, and sanitation already show a clear dominance of private capital, demonstrating that the concessions and partnerships model is firmly established in these areas.
The CNI stated:
Public and private financing dynamics are neither independent nor competing; sustained infrastructure growth depends on combining public budgets, the operations of development banks, and attracting capital markets.
New strategies to enable investments
To reach the 4.6% GDP target, the CNI proposes a comprehensive agenda involving the modernization of financing models. Among the proposals is the transition toward non-recourse project finance, ensuring that project cash flows secure their own financial sustainability. Furthermore, the entity advocates for a more technical role for the BNDES and Caixa Econômica Federal, focused on supporting states and municipalities in modeling concessions that are more attractive to long-term investors.
The success of this strategy also relies on greater participation from institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, and on expanding liquidity in the debt securities market. The intelligent use of public banks as risk mitigators, rather than direct lenders, is seen as the key to attracting private capital and leveraging the multiplier effect needed to transform Brazilian infrastructure over the coming years.
Looking ahead, the impact of these measures goes well beyond the numbers. Consistent growth in infrastructure investment is the essential driver for a transition toward a greener and more efficient economy. The continuity of this trajectory will depend on the government’s and the private sector’s ability to engage in dialogue to create a business environment that reduces uncertainty and ensures the longevity of the country’s basic and technological infrastructure projects.
