ANP Debates Rules to Decentralize the Natural Gas Market, Seeking Greater Competitiveness and Fairer Consumer Prices.
The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP) has taken a significant step toward restructuring Brazil’s natural gas market by opening Public Consultation and Hearing No. 16/2026. The primary focus is the “gas release” program, a crucial initiative to dilute Petrobras‘s dominance in the supply of this essential commodity and foster competition.
This regulatory move aims to introduce mechanisms that would compel major suppliers to make specific volumes of gas available to the market through competitive processes. The proposal has the potential to reshape the clean energy sector, opening new opportunities for players and, consequently, benefiting the end consumer with greater diversity and more attractive prices.
The Need for Gas Release and the Role of ANP
The decision to promote the decentralization of the natural gas market has already been solidified by Law No. 14.134/2021. This legislation established the need for tools to reduce supply concentration, outlining the structure of the “gas release” program. Essentially, companies with a high market share will be required to divest, via auction, a portion of their gas volumes.
However, the main discussion currently revolves around the “calibration” of the mechanism. It is up to the ANP to define vital parameters, such as which agents are subject to the program, the volumes to be offered, the initial minimum price, the frequency of auctions, and the duration of the measure. It is precisely this calibration that is now under public scrutiny, with the consultation open until September 28 and the public hearing scheduled for October 21.
“Gas release” is not a traditional antitrust tool, but rather a regulatory instrument that does not require proof of illicit conduct, aiming solely to create a fairer and more competitive market environment.
It is important to note that the Gas Law mandates that the ANP consult the Brazilian Competition Defense System, including the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (Cade). However, this interaction falls under the scope of “competition advocacy,” where Cade provides technical assistance for the formulation of more efficient public policies, without involving infringement investigations.
Proportionality and Regulatory Impact
The key challenge is to find the ideal balance for market decentralization. Excessive regulation can become a barrier to entry, stifling innovation and the participation of new competitors. The key to effective calibration is proportionality, as required by the Law on Regulatory Agencies and the Law on Introduction to the Norms of Brazilian Law. The measure must be reasonable and efficient.
An accurate diagnosis is fundamental for the implementation of effective public policy. Currently, the concentration index in the non-thermal wholesale natural gas market is around 3,750 points, indicating a highly concentrated market. The ANP‘s goal is to reduce this concentration to 2,500 points by 2030, which would move the market to a level of moderate concentration.
The ANP‘s regulatory impact analysis evaluated several alternatives, opting for an intermediate solution. There is clear evidence of the benefits of decentralization: in the Northeast, where supplier diversification has already advanced, concentration fell to 2,114 points, resulting in average prices up to 15.8% lower in 2023 compared to other regions.
Benefits for Producers and Consumers
A more liquid and competitive gas market benefits all links in the chain. Independent producers, who currently negotiate bilaterally and often without public price references, would have a transparent basis for pricing and more sales opportunities through periodic auctions.
Purchasers, in turn, would have access not only to the gas volume acquired but also to the corresponding transportation capacity, a vital element for effective competition. On the demand side, the proposal opens room for “gas-for-gas” competition and the adoption of pricing methodologies less tied to oil price volatility, translating into direct advantages for the end consumer.
It is crucial to consider the program’s objections and challenges. Incentives for investment in exploration and infrastructure are vital to ensure sufficient gas supply to meet future demand. Furthermore, contractual predictability is what sustains long-term investment decisions. International experiences, such as European gas release programs, show that success depends on effective access to infrastructure and an organized market.
Brazil produced 179 million cubic meters of gas per day in 2025, but only about 60 million reached the market. This gap, even after accounting for reinjected gas, points to significant potential for supply expansion. To fully exploit it, more than just redistributing existing gas is needed; a market capable of correctly pricing costs and attracting new investments in sustainable energy is essential.
The public consultation is, therefore, an indispensable forum for debating each parameter – volume, duration, eligibility criteria, pricing methodology, purchase limits, and coordination with access to outflow and processing. These decisions must be based on concrete evidence and the experience of market operators. The deadline for contributions is September 28. Precision in the design phase is crucial, as correcting course later tends to be much more costly.
