Natural gas for Brazilian industry saw a 16.2% increase in the first half of 2026, revealing a concerning scenario for the clean and sustainable energy sector, even as national production reached record levels.
Brazilian industry has encountered a reversal in natural gas costs. After a period of decline in 2025, tariffs surged in the first half of 2026, causing concern among consumers and energy market analysts. This increase directly contrasts with the significant growth in national production, raising questions about the effectiveness of current public policies for the sector.
The Instituto de Estudos Estratégicos de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis Zé Eduardo Dutra (Ineep), linked to the Federação Única dos Petroleiros (FUP), presented these data, pointing to a reversal in price trends. The institute highlights that the situation exposes weaknesses in proposals for the deconcentration of gas volumes, known as gas release, which had promised a different market scenario.
Soaring Prices and the Production Contradiction
According to the Ineep bulletin, the average natural gas tariff in the industrial captive market, considering a daily consumption of 200,000 m³ in the main state concessionaires, had receded by 3.9% between the second and fourth quarters of 2025, ending the year at R$ 2.97 per m³. However, in the first quarter of 2026, there was a jump of 16.5%, reaching R$ 3.46 per m³. The escalation continued in the following quarter, with another 3.8% increase, reaching R$ 3.59 per m³ of gas.
In an annual comparison, between the second quarters of 2025 and 2026, the cumulative increase was a significant 16.2%. This surge in prices occurred in parallel with a historic record in national natural gas production, which reached 210.04 million m³ per day in the second quarter of 2026, a growth of 20.7% compared to the same period the previous year.
Impact on Distributors and Consumers
Ineep‘s analysis reveals that tariff increases were not uniform. Comgás networks recorded the largest annual increase, at an impressive 69.8%. Subsequently, Algás and Bahiagás saw their tariffs rise by 45.5% and 44.2%, respectively. Only concessionaires Ceg and Ceg-Rio showed some tariff reduction during the period.
In addition to tariffs, the profit margins of gas distributors also expanded, with particular increases for Algás (+46.3%), ESGás (+56.7%), and Naturgy (+54.4%). These margins are calculated also considering free consumers, who, although not using the distributors’ gas, contribute with the Distribution System Use Tariff (Tusd). The institute attributes part of the price increase to the rise in international oil benchmarks, influenced by conflicts in the Middle East.
Criticism of the Supply Deconcentration Policy
Despite the increase in domestic production, Ineep questions the effectiveness of the supply deconcentration policy, or gas release, in promoting price reductions and the expansion of the gas pipeline network.
The institute emphasizes that the supply deconcentration proposal, known as gas release, fails in its objective of making the input cheaper and promoting the expansion of the distribution network into inland areas.
The entity emphasizes that the current policy has not driven the necessary infrastructure to reduce the high rates of gas reinjection, a crucial point for the sector’s efficiency.
Suggestions for the Future of the Energy Sector
Given this scenario, Ineep proposes a series of public policies for the period from 2027 to 2031, aiming to improve the oil and gas sector. The institute’s document prioritizes greater state participation and coordination, suggests the replacement of international price benchmarks for gas, and, assertively, the revocation of the New Gas Law, seeking a model that better serves national interests and the competitiveness of industry.
The increase in natural gas costs for industry, even during a period of record production, raises an alert about the need to reevaluate the country’s energy strategies. Ineep‘s proposals open the way for a fundamental debate on the coordination of the oil and gas sector, price regulation, and the role of the state, directly impacting the investment capacity and competitiveness of the industrial sector. The coming years will be decisive in defining the direction of energy policies and the future of clean and sustainable energy in Brazil.
