The ACL Thermometer, launched by Dcide and TR Soluções, shows that while the free energy market remains advantageous, the potential savings have dropped significantly over the past twelve months.
The energy contracting landscape in Brazil is experiencing a period of adjustment in its attractiveness. Data from the first edition of the ACL Thermometer indicate that as of October 2026, the free contracting environment still outperforms the regulated market, but the margin of savings for consumers has shrunk markedly. The survey, conducted by the consulting firms Dcide and TR Soluções, now serves as a monthly compass for monitoring this competitiveness.
The Attractiveness Index of the Free Market (IAML) for conventional energy closed at 115.3%, remaining above the parity line of 100%. However, the year‑over‑year comparison shows a decline of 22 percentage points. This shift signals that, although the free market remains a viable option, the financial advantage over captive tariffs is narrowing.
Competitiveness in a period of adjustment
The technical analysis of the ACL Thermometer points out that the estimated potential savings for a reference consumer reached 5.7% for conventional energy and 11.6% for the 50% incentive modality. The annual drop in potential savings reaches 6.1 percentage points, reinforcing that the benefit of migration is no longer static or guaranteed, requiring a more refined strategic analysis by energy managers.
The data history, dating back to 2016, shows that the Brazilian electric power market fluctuates with weather conditions and price variations. While the 2021 water crisis brought parity close to being achieved, the 2023 period marked the peak of the free market advantage, followed by recent stabilization that demands caution in decision‑making.
“With the market opening and the arrival of new consumer profiles, the initiative provides the sector with a transparent and auditable reference for analyses on market attractiveness,” says Helder Sousa, Director of Regulation at TR Soluções.
Decision Support Tool
The methodology used by the consulting firms is based on a medium‑voltage consumer from sub‑group A4, with a 36‑month contract horizon. The goal is to provide a clear metric, grounded in the forward price curve and captive market costs, enabling companies to assess the optimal timing to migrate or renew their supply contracts.
For Henrique Leme Felizatti, director of Dcide, the tool serves both those outside the market and those already operating in the free market: “For those in the regulated market, the Thermometer signals moments when a deeper migration analysis is worthwhile. For those already in the free market, it helps contextualize renewals and new contracts.”
Context of Incentivized Energy
It is important to note that the figures related to 50% incentivized energy come with crucial nuances. The attractiveness of this modality is strictly tied to consumers who retain the acquired right to discounts on TUST and TUSD. With the new rules effective from 2026, this benefit is no longer extendable to new entrants in the market, altering the economic viability perception for future contracts.
The ACL Thermometer will be updated on the 10th of each month, establishing itself as a vital thermometer for the electric sector. In a scenario of volatile prices, the transparency of this data should guide Brazilian companies’ energy purchasing strategies, which now need to consider not only immediate savings but also the sustainability of their margins in long‑term contracts.