ENBPar proposes a new methodology to optimize the forecast of Itaipu‘s energy supply to Paraguay starting in 2027, aiming for greater accuracy in the Brazilian electricity sector’s operation.
The Brazilian Company for Nuclear and Binational Energy Participations (ENBPar) is committed to refining how it estimates the electricity distribution generated by the Itaipu plant to the National Electricity Administration (Ande), Paraguay’s counterpart. A new methodology has been developed with the primary goal of aligning projections with operational reality, directly impacting the Monthly Operation Program (PMO) starting in January 2027.
This initiative is crucial for the planning of the Brazilian electricity sector, as forecasts of Itaipu‘s supply to Ande are essential data for the Newave and Decomp models, used by the National Electric System Operator (ONS). The pursuit of greater accuracy aims to ensure the stability and efficiency of energy management in Brazil, considering the dynamic variations in Paraguayan demand.
Forecasting Challenges and the New Approach
Currently, Itaipu‘s energy supply to Paraguay exhibits fluctuations that do not always correlate with the growth or seasonality of the Paraguayan load. This reality has impacted all participants in the electricity market in Brazil, highlighting the urgent need to revise forecasting techniques.
In response to this scenario, ENBPar, in collaboration with Itaipu Binacional and the ONS, conceived the “Seasonal Index Adjusted Naive” method. Unlike the current methodology, which uses a fixed adjustment factor for subsequent years, the new proposal starts with the previous month’s consumption and applies an adjustment factor calculated based on historical growth averages, allowing for monthly updates to estimates. The Aneel, although consulted, informed that its prior approval is no longer mandatory, suggesting alignment with the ONS and the Electric Energy Commercialization Chamber (CCEE).
Testing and Recommendations
To validate the new methodology’s effectiveness, rigorous tests were conducted using historical data of Itaipu‘s supply to Ande between 2010 and 2020. The results demonstrated that the “Seasonal Index Adjusted Naive” model outperformed the alternatives analyzed, showing the best overall performance and, consequently, the smallest deviation in projections.
ENBPar reported:
The tests conducted presented a significantly smaller deviation in the forecast of Itaipu‘s energy supply to Ande, indicating substantial progress in the accuracy of estimates, as detailed in ENBPar‘s technical document.
The recommendation is clear: adopt the new methodology. Studies suggest that the calculation of the adjustment factor should ideally consider a rolling 11-year window to optimize results.
Future Impact and Next Steps
The implementation of the new methodology in the PMO starting in January 2027 was set to ensure adequate time for presentation, analysis, approval, and dissemination to market agents. This transparency is fundamental, allowing electricity sector participants to integrate the new projections into their own simulations.
With a more accurate forecast of Itaipu‘s energy supply to Paraguay, Brazil reinforces its commitment to efficient energy resource management and the stability of its system. This enhancement not only optimizes operational planning but also contributes to an environment of greater predictability and security for all stakeholders in the dynamic energy market.
