Brazil faces a critical supply scenario: on the verge of hitting its peak diesel consumption in October, the country sees 80% of its imports threatened by US barriers.
The Brazilian energy sector is on high alert due to a potential blockage of diesel exports announced by United States President Donald Trump. The measure, floated to curb rising domestic prices in the US market, puts Brazil’s energy security at risk precisely when national demand reaches its all-time high. Data from the ANP confirms that October is the period of highest fuel movement, with records exceeding 6.4 million cubic meters.
Currently, Brazil’s dependence on the US market is profound. Surveys from the MDIC indicate that approximately 68% of the diesel imported by the country between July and August originated in the US, a volume that jumped to 80% for scheduled orders in October. The imbalance occurs at a time when alternative routes, such as Russia, have lost significant momentum due to geopolitical conflicts, drastically reducing the range of global suppliers for Brazil.
Risks to energy sovereignty and the private market
Trump‘s threat to suspend diesel shipments creates a domino effect of uncertainty. Although voices within the US administration itself, such as Energy Secretary Chris Wright, contest the effectiveness of a total ban, the logistical impact would be immediate. The lack of market options forces Brazilian importers into a position of extreme vulnerability, where supply shortages could become a reality as early as next month.
Sérgio Araújo, director of Abicom, warns:
“If Trump bans diesel exports, Brazilian importers will have great difficulty continuing their operations.”
Beyond the external threat, the sector faces a domestic challenge: the end of the R$ 1.12 per liter subsidy, scheduled to expire on September 26. Without government support, private importers’ appetite for new purchases is expected to retract even further, raising the risk of shortages during a peak logistical period for the country.
Petrobras dependence and the future of self-sufficiency
With the retraction of private importers and the limitation of suppliers like Russia, Petrobras has consolidated itself as the central pillar of national supply, accounting for 86% of deliveries to distributors in August. The state-owned company, however, is dealing with the pressure of high costs and the need to balance its trade account in an environment of high global volatility.
The scenario reinforces the strategic debate on fuel self-sufficiency. While the Brazilian government has already spent approximately R$ 47 billion on subsidies, Magda Chambriard‘s management at Petrobras maintains a long-term goal of reducing this exposure to external markets.
For the short term, the expectation is that the US government will opt for cooperative solutions rather than rigid restrictions, avoiding a supply crisis that would affect not only Brazil but the global dynamics of clean energy prices and derivatives.
