The Federal Government projects that Brazil will remain dependent on external diesel purchases over the next decade, even with the expansion of crude oil extraction.
The Decennial Energy Expansion Plan, released by the Ministry of Mines and Energy and the Energy Research Company, outlines a scenario in which the nation will need to fill domestic shortages with foreign fuel through 2036. While crude oil extraction moves toward record levels, the national processing infrastructure remains limited and cannot keep pace with consumption growth.
Despite the increase in crude oil extraction, Brazil’s industrial sector cannot convert all of the raw volume into essential derivatives. As domestic demand for automotive oil accelerates, the supply from national refineries grows disproportionately, reinforcing the need for external supply to feed the logistics and transportation market.
The Mismatch Between Extraction and Refining
The strategic plan indicates that automotive oil consumption will jump over the next ten years, driven by economic activity and the transport sector. In contrast, domestic derivative production at refineries will see only modest growth. As a direct consequence of this gap, volumes purchased from other countries will rise sharply by the end of the period under review.
The government document details that the country will extract massive volumes of crude oil, but much of that raw material will continue to be shipped abroad in its unprocessed form.
As a result, the country will remain dependent on imports to supplement the national supply.
This dynamic highlights the historical bottleneck of the national manufacturing base, which has not received sufficient investment to keep up with the expansion of the pre‑salt layer over recent decades.
Different Scenario for Gasoline and QAV
While road oil will require continuous foreign purchases, other derivatives follow an opposite trajectory in the official plan. Gasoline is expected to reach self‑sufficiency due to stagnant domestic consumption. This behavior reflects the greater integration of biofuels into the national mix and the gradual transition to electrified fleets in major cities.
In the aviation sector, the outlook is even more favorable. Aviation kerosene is moving toward fully eliminating external dependence before the decade ends, driven by new renewable fuel guidelines and operational adjustments at processing units. The supply of cooking gas will also see significant relief, benefiting from the commercial use of natural gas from new processing plants.
In the coming years, the national energy policy will need to pay extra attention to mitigate risks of logistical supply vulnerability. Prolonged reliance on foreign automotive oil leaves the economy exposed to currency fluctuations and international geopolitical crises, making it urgent to modernize and expand Brazil’s manufacturing base to ensure greater supply security in the medium and long term.