Government studies point to a significant jump in distributed solar generation by 2036, but experts warn that individual profitability depends on rigorous technical and financial planning.
The Brazilian energy mix is heading toward a substantial transformation in the coming years. According to projections from the Decennial Energy Expansion Plan, developed by the Energy Research Company (EPE), the installed capacity of micro and mini distributed generation could reach 91.7 gigawatts by 2036.
Within this decentralized production modality, photovoltaic solar energy stands out as the main protagonist, accounting for 99% of the total projected amount. The study indicates potential participation of about 13.5 million consumers and private investments estimated at R$ 95.9 billion between 2027 and 2036.
However, analysts emphasize that these national figures represent reference trajectories and do not guarantee profit or automatic return for each household or business that installs rooftop panels.
Robust projections do not eliminate individual analysis
The estimates presented by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) reflect long‑term planning scenarios that guide the electric sector. Achieving these milestones will depend on the expansion of distribution networks, financing interest rates, and current tariff rules.
The study points to an impact of 276 terawatt‑hours on the system, a figure that combines self‑generation, electrical efficiency measures—responsible for avoiding 53 terawatt‑hours of demand—and self‑production. Therefore, the total contribution should not be attributed solely to residential solar modules.
Moreover, the projected R$ 95.9 billion is not a government subsidy but rather the accumulation of private investment decisions over a decade.
“The decennial plan is a market indicator that guides the system. The economic viability of each project depends on consumption profile, local radiation, and network conditions.”
Key Factors for Solar Energy Consumers
For those considering installing a photovoltaic system, the assessment should focus on the specific characteristics of the property. Factors such as available roof space, shading levels, and daily electricity consumption patterns are more decisive than national averages.
It is essential to request conservative simulations from the integrator that include maintenance costs, the natural decline in panel efficiency over the years, and potential inverter replacement. Fixed rates and fees also remain on the monthly bill.
The technical approval from the local distributor and the network connection capacity at the address are critical steps before formalizing any contract or financial loan.
Conscious Planning for the Energy Future
The continued growth of distributed generation reinforces the transition to clean sources in Brazil and demonstrates the maturity of photovoltaic technology in the country. The sector’s expansion signals significant economic opportunities for businesses and consumers.
However, individual investment decisions should be guided by strict budgets and up-to-date technical assessments. Ensuring the project aligns with household or corporate budgets is the path to turning projected savings into reality.