Heavy rains in the Center-South region are compromising the pace of the harvest, projecting that millions of tons of sugarcane will be left in the field and reducing ethanol supply, while corn-based production cushions the impact on the energy sector.
Excessive rainfall recorded in the main producing regions of the Brazilian Center-South has significantly disrupted the planning of clean energy and biofuel mills. With waterlogged soil, heavy machinery operations become unfeasible, slowing down the continuous flow of raw material required for industrial milling.
This adverse scenario has driven new projections for the sugarcane and energy sector. According to a survey released by XP Investimentos, the current harvest is facing expressive losses in momentum that could alter the agricultural calendar for coming years, requiring adaptations in the ethanol and sugar production chain.
Direct Impact on the Field and Milling Delays
The excess rainfall, indicated by INMET data, has compromised the crop schedule since September. Difficulties in navigating harvesters have reduced the volume processed by industries, which are already operating below the levels recorded in the previous cycle.
The low productivity is not limited to the volume of harvested raw material, but also affects plant quality. High humidity dilutes the sucrose concentration, lowering the TRS (Total Recoverable Sugar) index and limiting industrial yield per ton processed.
The combination of waterlogged soil and restricted dry weather windows has drastically reduced our operational margin, directly impacting crop yields this season.
Consequences for Ethanol and the Role of Corn
Given this outlook, projections for biofuel supply have undergone considerable revisions. The estimate for sugarcane ethanol production suffered a significant cut of approximately 800 million liters, reflecting harvest losses and lower sugar concentrations.
Conversely, corn ethanol is consolidating its strategic role in the national energy matrix. With industrial processes independent of the weather conditions affecting sugarcane fields, the cereal guarantees an additional volume injection into the market, helping sustain the sector’s total projection of 35.4 billion liters.
The evolution of the biofuel market in the coming months will fundamentally depend on the ability of mills to take advantage of any weather breaks to make up for lost time. While a significant portion of the harvest is expected to remain in the field as holdover sugarcane for 2027, the sugarcane-energy sector is closely monitoring inventories and demand to ensure a balanced supply of sustainable energy to consumers.