Competition for energy in São Paulo during the first Access Season of 2026 has decreased sharply, with 451 MW in requests vying for 228 MW of transmission capacity.
The landscape for the first Access Season of 2026, organized by the National Electric System Operator (ONS), has seen a significant drop in demand volume. Initially projected to be a competitive process involving 2.94 GW, the final volume of consumer requests competing for transmission capacity in São Paulo has settled at 451 MW. The remaining capacity up for grabs in the São Paulo grid totals 228 MW.
The results, released following the conclusion of the agent manifestation phase on September 11, reflect a leaner market dynamic for this season. In the preliminary assessment, requests totaled 1.95 GW in loads distributed across 13 connection points in São Paulo and 993 MW in generation requests in Rio Grande do Sul. With the close of the manifestation phase and the sequential allocation of capacity, competition has narrowed to four access points for large-scale consumers in the state of São Paulo.
Demand concentration in São Paulo
The 451 MW in requests are distributed across the connection points of Cabreúva (108 MW), Edgard de Souza (54 MW), Replan (273 MW), and Solvay (16 MW). The competitive process, scheduled for October 6, will determine which of these requests will be fulfilled within the 228 MW available.
The capacity effectively in dispute is lower than the 290 MW initially estimated for the São Paulo sub-area. This discrepancy occurred due to the utilization of part of the margin to fulfill a prior product, following the ONS sequential allocation methodology, which prioritizes products from earlier years. The Bom Jardim–Fernão Dias sub-area, for instance, had 62 MW fulfilled directly for the 2029 product, reducing the capacity available for the 2029+ competitive process.
Comprehensive access analysis process
Alongside the concentrated competition, another 3.42 GW in demand received notice for direct fulfillment and is moving forward to the issuance of the Preliminary Access Diagnosis (DPA). This figure is lower than the 8.06 GW that had received the same indication in the preliminary assessment on September 2.
Considering the transition phase established by Decree 12.772/2025, the ONS reported having analyzed over 43 GW in access requests since the implementation of the National Policy for Access to the Transmission System (Pnast). Of this total, 19.7 GW have been made viable through the transitional phase, encompassing over 180 Access Opinions issued.
The total volume of requests analyzed during the transitional phase amounted to 23.32 GW, consisting of 9.82 GW for generation and 13.5 GW for consumption. Combining the amounts made viable in the transitional phase and the projects qualified for the first Access Season, the ONS accounts for 30.7 GW. The closing event for the first Access Season of 2026 is scheduled for October 7 in Brasília.