The ANP has taken a crucial step with the public consultation for its Program to Reduce Concentration in the Natural Gas Market, aiming for a more competitive landscape and diversified supply for the country.
The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) has launched a new and significant phase in the debate over gas release in Brazil. In its latest board meeting, held on August 7, the agency approved the opening of a 45-day public consultation on the draft of the Program to Reduce Concentration in the Natural Gas Market (PGR). This move, which will be followed by a public hearing, represents the first concrete opportunity for the market and society to debate a formal regulatory proposal.
The ANP‘s initiative is based on Article 33 of the New Gas Law (Law No. 14.134/2021), which grants the agency the power to monitor the natural gas market and implement mechanisms to mitigate concentration, including holding auctions for the sale of gas. The core of the proposal is the high concentration observed in the non-thermoelectric wholesale market connected to the national grid, where the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) stands at an alarming 3,747 points. The state-run giant Petrobras holds approximately 59% of the sales in this segment, reinforcing the need for intervention to promote greater competition and transparency in the energy sector.
The Moderate PGR Strategy
The Moderate PGR, chosen as the primary alternative by the ANP after careful analysis, aims to reduce the HHI to below 2,500 points. To achieve this ambitious goal, the agency plans to hold annual auctions, offering indicative volumes that will grow from approximately 8 million cubic meters per day (m³/day) to over 9 million m³/day by 2030. The first auction is scheduled for 2027, with gas deliveries expected to begin in 2028. The model may be adjusted in subsequent cycles to adapt to the dynamics of the gas market and the advancement of the country’s energy sources.
One of the most relevant aspects of the draft is that the Moderate PGR does not impose an obligation on Petrobras to sell its own gas production. Instead, the volumes to be offered in the auctions will come from three distinct sources: gas acquired from third parties, gas imported from Bolivia via the Gasbol pipeline, and gas owned by the Union currently operated by the company. This approach aims to demystify the idea that gas release would be a compulsory expropriation of Petrobras‘ production.
Beyond the Molecule: Liquidity and Infrastructure
The ANP‘s proposal goes beyond the mere sale of volumes, incorporating additional mechanisms to foster liquidity and contestability in the gas market. The tender documents may include capacity release—the assignment of contracted and unused transportation capacity—customer release, which allows consumers to migrate to new suppliers, and the role of a market maker, an agent that ensures continuous buy and sell offers. These measures seek not only to redistribute available gas but to effectively create a more dynamic and competitive gas market.
The sector consultation conducted by the ANP revealed strong support for the initiative, with 95% of participants considering the program fundamental or important. Regional experiences also corroborate this: in 2025, the HHI in the Northeast was 2,114 points, while in the Southeast it reached 4,240, highlighting that a larger number of suppliers results in greater competitive pressure on natural gas prices. The ANP also highlighted the significant spread between the acquisition and sale prices of gas by Petrobras, reinforcing the need for greater transparency in the costs of each link in the gas production chain.
Brazil faces the challenge of not only deconcentrating sales but also expanding the national supply of gas. This involves optimizing existing infrastructure and enabling new routes. Projects such as the revitalization of the Caraguatatuba Gas Treatment Unit (UTGCA) and the utilization of idle capacity in the Mexilhão system are crucial. Furthermore, the connection of new pre-salt fields, such as Bacalhau and Gato do Mato, and structuring projects like Sergipe Águas Profundas and Raia (Equinor), are essential to increase supply and reduce reliance on a single system.
The Competitive Future of Brazilian Gas
Tulio Cesar Chipoletti
“The Brazilian path, therefore, should not be a choice between Gas Release and increased production. The most robust solution is a combination: deconcentrating sales, ensuring effective access to infrastructure, releasing contracted and unused capacity, providing market liquidity, better utilizing existing offshore assets, and enabling new gas routes.”
The Moderate PGR, currently in public consultation, offers a solid foundation for the future of the gas market in Brazil. By establishing a measurable target for deconcentration and proposing mechanisms that do not affect Petrobras‘ own production, the ANP creates an environment conducive to improvements. The next 45 days will be fundamental for society and industry input to refine the final design, ensuring that the program stimulates new investment and that commercial opening advances in sync with an effective increase in gas supply.
The primary objective is to transform the Brazilian gas market into an ecosystem where more producers can sell, more consumers have options, and more national gas, derived from clean and sustainable energy sources, reaches the coast at truly competitive prices, driving the country’s energy transition.
